Why the answer surprises people
Most rent vs. buy posts assume you'll hold the home for 30 years and ignore opportunity cost. That bakes in a buy-wins answer.
Realistic answer: buying typically wins after about year 3-5 in stable markets, gets dramatically better with longer holds, and gets worse if rates rise sharply or you have to sell early. For someone who might move in 2 years, renting is usually right. For someone planning to stay 7+ years, buying almost always wins — the home appreciation plus locked rent (mortgage payment) compounds in your favor.
Florida-specific factors
- Insurance increases. Florida insurance has been compounding faster than rent inflation in many areas. The model assumes static insurance — reality may be higher.
- Special assessments. Older Florida buildings can issue surprise assessments for repairs. Not in the model — but real risk.
- No state income tax. Florida residents don't get the SALT deduction benefit on income — which means the federal mortgage interest deduction is more valuable in low-tax states than in high-tax ones (your itemized deductions don't compete with state income tax).
- Save Our Homes cap. If you stay in your homesteaded Florida home long-term, the 3% cap on assessed value protects you from compounding property tax — a real long-term advantage. More →
FAQ
Is the 6% investment return realistic?
Long-run S&P 500 nominal return has been 8-10%. After inflation and taxes on dividends/gains, 5-7% is more realistic for many investors. The default of 6% is conservative-middle. Adjust based on your actual investment strategy.
Should I buy if I'm not sure how long I'll stay?
Generally no — closing costs and transaction friction make short-hold buying expensive. Florida's relatively high transaction costs (doc stamps, intangible tax) make this even more pronounced. The break-even tends to be around 3-5 years.